Comparative Analysis of the Seasonal Driving Factors of the Urban Heat Environment Using Machine Learning: Evidence from the Wuhan Urban Agglomeration, China, 2020

Abstract

With the ongoing advancement of globalization significantly impacting the ecological environment, the continuous rise in the Land Surface Temperature (LST) is increasingly jeopardizing human production and living conditions. This study aims to investigate the seasonal variations in the LST and its driving factors using mathematical models. Taking the Wuhan Urban Agglomeration (WHUA) as a case study, it explores the seasonal characteristics of the LST and employs Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to categorize the driving factors. Additionally, it compares traditional models with machine-learning models to select the optimal model for this investigation. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) The WHUA’s LST exhibits significant differences among seasons and demonstrates distinct spatial-clustering characteristics in different seasons. (2) Compared to traditional geographic spatial models, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) shows better explanatory power in investigating the driving effects of the LST. (3) Human Activity (HA) dominates the influence throughout the year and shows a significant positive correlation with the LST; Physical Geography (PG) exhibits a negative correlation with the LST; Climate and Weather (CW) show a similar variation to the PG, peaking in the transition; and the Landscape Pattern (LP) shows a weak positive correlation with the LST, peaking in winter while being relatively inconspicuous in summer and the transition. Finally, through comparative analysis of multiple driving factors and models, this study constructs a framework for exploring the seasonal features and driving factors of the LST, aiming to provide references and guidance for the development of the WHUA and similar regions.

Keywords

• land surface temperature (LST)
• driving factors
• XGBoost
• SHAP
• Wuhan urban agglomeration (WHUA)