APPLICATION OF THE SCENARIO APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS AND CONTROL OF RISKS IN THE OPERATION OF COMPLEX DYNAMIC SYSTEMS UNDER CONDITIONS OF INTERVAL UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

Introduction. The paper provides a description of the scenario approach to risk control in the operation of complex technical systems under conditions of uncertainty. The scenario is understood as the optimal control action on the system parameters, which allows minimizing the possible costs associated with the implementation of the corresponding risk event. The aim of the study is to develop effective risk management methods for the operation of a complex dynamic system under conditions of uncertainty based on a scenario approach that makes it possible to implement the optimal control action on the parameters of an object in the event of a threat of an emergency. Materials and methods. The article describes the application of the scenario method to the management of risks that arise during the operation of a complex dynamic system under conditions of interval uncertainty. This approach is based on the application of methods of interval analysis and the theory of situational management. The scientific novelty of the implemented approach lies in the use of the interval analysis apparatus, which makes it possible to most correctly take into account the possible errors associated with measuring the values of the system parameters and apply the optimal control actions necessary for correction in the event that the permissible indicators go beyond the operability area. Discussion and conclusion. The mathematical model of risk control developed in the course of the study carried out during the process of functioning of a complex technical system under conditions of interval uncertainty based on the scenario approach allows the selection of optimal control actions (scenarios) that allow minimizing possible errors and inaccuracies that arise due to deviation from the calculated nominal values.

Keywords

• risk management
• interval uncertainty
• complex technical system
• scenario method