Oceanologia (Sep 2007)
Correlation analyses of Baltic Sea winter water mass formation and its impact on secondary and tertiary production
Abstract
The thermal stratification of the upper water layers in the BalticSea varies seasonally in response to the annual cycle of solarheating and wind-induced mixing. In winter, the stratificationdown to the halocline is almost completely eroded by convectionand strong wind mixing. Monthly averaged temperature profilesobtained from the ICES hydrographic database were used to studythe long-term variability (1950 to 2005) of winter water massformation in different deep basins of the Baltic Sea east ofthe island of Bornholm. Besides strong interannual variabilityof deep winter water temperatures, the last two decades showa positive trend (increase of 1-1.5°C). Correlationsof winter surface temperatures to temperatures of the winterwater body located directly above or within the top of the haloclinewere strongly positive until the autumn months. Such a closecoupling allows sea surface temperatures in winter to be usedto forecast the seasonal development of the thermal signaturein deeper layers with a high degree of confidence. The most significantimpact of winter sea surface temperatures on the thermal signaturein this depth range can be assigned to February/March. Strongersolar heating during spring and summer results in thermal stratificationof the water column leading to a complete decoupling of surfaceand deep winter water temperatures. Based on laboratory experiments,temperature-dependent relationships were utilised to analyseinterannual variations of biological processes with special emphasison the upper trophic levels (e.g., stage-specific developmentalrates of zooplankton and survival rates of fish eggs).
