Correlation of armed conflicts and malaria epidemics in central Africa

Abstract

Objective To study the correlation between armed conflicts and malaria epidemic in the countries of central Africa. Methods The number of confirmed malaria cases, time of armed conflicts and number of deaths in armed conflicts were collected form the 7 countries of central Africa from 1997 to 2016, and the geographical situation of armed conflicts was drawn using Geographic Information System (GIS). A linear regression model was used to analyze the relationship between armed conflicts and the number of malaria epidemics. Results GIS analysis showed that Democratic Republic of the Congo had the highest frequency of the armed conflicts. Spearman rank correlation analysis indicated that among the 7 countries in the central Africa, the number of armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was positively correlated with the number of confirmed malaria cases (P < 0.05). Linear regression analysis suggested that the number of confirmed malaria cases in the country was linearly related to the annual number of armed conflicts. Conclusion The number of armed conflicts is clearly associated with the prevalence of malaria in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Keywords

• armed conflict
• malaria
• geographical distribution
• central africa