Construction of predictive model for pregnancy-related anxiety risk in pregnant women based on LASSO regression

Abstract

BackgroundPregnancy-related anxiety has a negative impact on the physical and mental health of pregnant women and the normal growth and development of the fetus. Establishing prediction models for pregnancy-related anxiety to screen associated predictive factors may provide important opportunities for prenatal intervention.ObjectiveTo establish a prediction model of pregnancy-related anxiety risk of pregnant women.MethodsFrom January to July 2021, a questionnaire survey on pregnancy-related anxiety and predictors was conducted among pregnant women having routine prenatal check-ups provided by an obstetrics clinic of a tertiary grade A hospital in Ningxia. The socio-demographic characteristics of the subjects were collected, and the pregnant women were evaluated by the Life Event Scale (LES), Perceived Social Support Scale (PSSS), Family APGAR Index (APGAR), and Pregnancy-related Anxiety Questionnaire (PAQ). R 4.2.0 software was used to fit all selected variables by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to identify predictors of pregnancy-related anxiety in the second and third trimesters. On the basis of logistic regression analysis, prediction models of pregnancy-related anxiety in the second and third trimesters were constructed, and the model nomogram and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were drawn. The prediction effect of the model was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC). A calibration chart was drawn to evaluate the calibration of the model.ResultsA total of 1500 questionnaires were distributed, and 1448 valid questionnaires were recovered, with an effective rate of 96.53%. Among the 1448 pregnant women, the overall positive rate of pregnancy-related anxiety was 28.80% (417/1448), and the positive rates in the second and third trimesters were 29.21% (276/935) and 27.49% (141/513), respectively. The predictors entering the the second trimester model were age of marriage, family care, social support, family expectations for the fetus, physical condition during pregnancy, and whether experiencing life stressful events during pregnancy. The predictors entering the the third trimester model were pregnancy intention, physical discomfort, and whether experiencing life stress during pregnancy. A risk prediction model of pregnancy-related anxiety for the second trimester was established: risk of pregnancy-related anxiety=−0.07× marriage age +0.12× family care −0.03× social support −0.65× family expectation of fetal sex +0.42× physical condition during pregnancy +0.47× whether experiencing life stressful events during pregnancy. A risk prediction model of pregnancy-related anxiety for the third trimester was established: risk of pregnancy-related anxiety=−5.69+0.82× pregnancy intention +1.06× physical discomfort +0.94× whether experiencing life stressful events during pregnancy. The ROC curves of the two models were drawn. The AUC of the second trimester model was 0.71, and the AUC of related validation model was 0.68. The AUC of the third trimester model was 0.72, and the AUC of related validation model was 0.66.ConclusionThe risk prediction models of pregnancy-related anxiety constructed based on LASSO regression and logistic regression have good prediction ability, and they suggest that pregnant women in the second trimester with short marriage age, high family care, low social support, family expectations for fetal sex, average physical condition, and experiencing life stress during pregnancy, and pregnant women in the third trimester with spontaneous pregnant intention, unintended pregnancy, physical discomfort, and experiencing life stress during pregnancy are high-risk groups for pregnancy-related anxiety.

Keywords

• pregnant woman
• pregnancy-related anxiety
• least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression
• predictive factor
• predictive model