Quantitatively Assessing and Attributing Land Use and Land Cover Changes on China’s Loess Plateau

Abstract

The global land surface cover is undergoing extensive changes in the context of global change, especially in the Loess Plateau, where ecological restoration policies have been vigorously implemented since 2000. Evaluating the impact of these policies on land cover is of great significance for regional sustainable development. Nonetheless, there are few quantitative assessment studies of the impact of ecological restoration policies on land use and land cover change (LULCC). In this study, a relative contribution conceptual model (RCCM) was used to explore the contribution of the policies to LULCC under the influence of natural background change, which was based on the Markov chain and the future land use simulation (FLUS) model. The results show that LULCC is influenced by ecological restoration policies and the natural environment, of which the policies contribute about 72.37% and natural change contribute about 27.63%. Ecological restoration policies have a profound impact on LULCC, changing the original direction of LULCC greatly. Additionally, these policies regulate the pattern of LULCC by controlling the amount of cropland as a rebalanced leverage. These findings provide useful information for facilitating sustainable ecological development in the Loess Plateau and theoretically supporting environmental decision-making.

Keywords

• land use and land cover change
• ecological restoration policy
• grain for green program
• flus model
• natural effects