Prediction of the potential distribution of a raspberry (Rubus idaeus) in China based on MaxEnt model

Xiangqian Gao; Furong Lin; Meng Li; Yujie Mei; Yongxiang Li; Yanlin Bai; Xiaolong He; Yongqi Zheng

doi:10.1038/s41598-024-75559-y

Scientific Reports (Oct 2024)

Prediction of the potential distribution of a raspberry (Rubus idaeus) in China based on MaxEnt model

Xiangqian Gao,
Furong Lin,
Meng Li,
Yujie Mei,
Yongxiang Li,
Yanlin Bai,
Xiaolong He,
Yongqi Zheng

Affiliations

Xiangqian Gao: State Key Laboratory of Tree Genetics and Breeding, Key Laboratory of Forest Silviculture and Tree Cultivation, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Research Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry
Furong Lin: State Key Laboratory of Tree Genetics and Breeding, Key Laboratory of Forest Silviculture and Tree Cultivation, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Research Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry
Meng Li: State Key Laboratory of Tree Genetics and Breeding, Key Laboratory of Forest Silviculture and Tree Cultivation, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Research Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry
Yujie Mei: College of Horticultural Science and Technology, Hebei Normal University of Science and Technology
Yongxiang Li: State Key Laboratory of Tree Genetics and Breeding, Key Laboratory of Forest Silviculture and Tree Cultivation, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Research Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry
Yanlin Bai: Shanxi State-Owned Forest Farm and Seedling Station
Xiaolong He: Shanxi State-Owned Forest Farm and Seedling Station
Yongqi Zheng: State Key Laboratory of Tree Genetics and Breeding, Key Laboratory of Forest Silviculture and Tree Cultivation, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Research Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-75559-y
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 14, no. 1
pp. 1 – 11

Abstract

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Abstract Rubus idaeus is a pivotal cultivated species of raspberry known for its attractive color, distinct flavor, and numerous health benefits. It can be used in pharmaceutical, cosmetics, agriculture and food industries not only as fresh but also as a processed product. Nowadays due to climatic changes, genetic diversity of cultivars has decreased dramatically. However, until now, the status of wild R. idaeus resources in China have not been exploited. In this study, we investigated the resources of wild R. idaeus in China to secure its future potential and sustainability. The MaxEnt model was used to predict R. idaeus suitable habitats and spatial distribution patterns for current and future climate scenarios, based on wild domestic geographic distribution data, current and future climate variables, and topographic variables. The results showed that, mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19), precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), and temperature seasonality (bio4) were crucial factors affecting the distribution of R. idaeus. Presently, the suitable habitats were mainly distributed in the north of China including Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang. According to our results, in 2050s, the total suitable habitat area of R. idaeus will increase under SSP1-2.6 and then will be decreased with climate change, while in the 2090s, the total suitable habitat area will continue to decrease. From the present to the 2090s, the centroid distribution of R. idaeus in China will shift towards the east and the species will always be present in Inner Mongolia. Our results provide wild resource information and theoretical reference for the protection and rational utilization of R. idaeus.

Published in Scientific Reports

ISSN: 2045-2322 (Online)
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Medicine; Science
Website: https://www.nature.com/srep/

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