Multidecadal Variations in the Tropical Western Pacific Driven by Externally‐Forced AMV‐Like Changes

Abstract

Abstract Multidecadal sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) have been attributed to nonlinear external forcing and remote influences from the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). However, the AMV resulted from both internal variability (IV) and external forcing. Thus, the origins of the TWP SST variations are not well understood. By analyzing observations and model simulations, we show that more than half of the decadal to multidecadal SST variations in TWP during 1920–2020 resulted from external forcing with the forced component correlated with AMV, while the internal component is unrelated to AMV. Furthermore, about 43%–49% of the forced AMV‐like SST variations in TWP result from remote influences of the forced AMV in the Atlantic via atmospheric teleconnection over the North Pacific, with the rest from other remote or local processes.

Keywords

• Atlantic multidecadal variability
• internal variability
• external forcing
• tropical western Pacific