Mitigation of the effects of climate change in the agricultural sector of Cyprus, through optimization of benefit

Abstract

Water scarcity has a significant impact on agricultural productivity, and it usually constitutes the main criterion for the continuation of agricultural activity. The Cyprus agri-sector faces increasing challenges since water resources are very limited and particularly susceptible to climate change. As total profit highly depends on cultivation patterns, the present study aims to define the optimal pattern of agricultural crops in Cyprus. A linear programming model is set up to maximize the net profit of annual and permanent crops. As for the constraints, these include limitations on land and water availability under four different scenarios, provided that production secures current consumption of (1) domestic products, (2) domestic and imported products, (3) domestic products but under a 40% decrease in water availability and (4) domestic products but limited to only traditional, tropical and subtropical crops, under a 40% decrease in water availability. The results indicate that when using an optimal cultivation pattern, economic benefit increases by 120%, 62%, 20%, and 48%, based on Scenarios 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Furthermore, the results are considered useful and directly applicable for policy makers to redesign their strategy in light of water scarcity. HIGHLIGHTS Water scarcity in Cyprus impacts the agri-sector, leading to high economic losses.; Linear programming can provide optimal cultivation patterns to maximize economic benefit.; If Cypriot agriculture shifts to less water-intensive/higher-added-value crops, an increase in economic benefit is achieved, even with significant water reduction.; Linear Programming results provide a valuable tool for policy makers, in light of climate change.;

Keywords

• agriculture
• climate change
• cyprus
• irrigation
• linear programming