Estimation of R₀ for the Spread of the First ASF Epidemic in Italy from Fresh Carcasses

Abstract

After fifty years of spread in the European continent, the African swine fever (ASF) virus was detected for the first time in the north of Italy (Piedmont) in a wild boar carcass in December, 2021. During the first six months of the epidemic, the central role of wild boars in disease transmission was confirmed by more than 200 outbreaks, which occurred in two different areas declared as infected. The virus entered a domestic pig farm in the second temporal cluster identified in the center of the country (Lazio). Understanding ASF dynamics in wild boars is a prerequisite for preventing the spread, and for designing and applying effective surveillance and control plans. The aim of this work was to describe and evaluate the data collected during the first six months of the ASF epidemic in Italy, and to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) in order to quantify the extent of disease spread. The R0 estimates were significantly different for the two spatio-temporal clusters of ASF in Italy, and they identified the two infected areas based on the time necessary for the number of cases to double (td) and on an exponential decay model. These results (R0 = 1.41 in Piedmont and 1.66 in Lazio) provide quantitative knowledge on the epidemiology of ASF in Italy. These parameters could represent a fundamental tool for modeling country-specific ASF transmission and for monitoring both the spread and sampling effort needed to detect the disease early.

Keywords

• African swine fever
• wild boar
• basic reproduction number
• doubling time
• disease eradication
• mathematical model