Optimizing deep neural network architectures for renewable energy forecasting

Abstract

Abstract An accurate renewable energy output forecast is essential for energy efficiency and power system stability. Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM(BiLSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU), and Convolutional Neural Network-LSTM(CNN-LSTM) Deep Neural Network (DNN) topologies are tested for solar and wind power production forecasting in this study. ARIMA was compared to the models. This study offers a unique architecture for Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) that are specifically tailored for renewable energy forecasting, optimizing accuracy by advanced hyperparameter tuning and the incorporation of essential meteorological and temporal variables. The optimized LSTM model outperformed others, with MAE (0.08765), MSE (0.00876), RMSE (0.09363), MAPE (3.8765), and R2 (0.99234) values. The GRU, CNN-LSTM, and BiLSTM models predicted well. Meteorological and time-based factors enhanced model accuracy. The addition of sun and wind data improved its prediction. The results show that advanced deep neural network (DNN) models can predict renewable energy, highlighting the importance of carefully selecting characteristics and fine-tuning the model. This work improves renewable energy estimates to promote a more reliable and environmentally sustainable electricity system.

Keywords

• Renewable energy
• Forecasting
• Deep learning
• LSTM
• Neural networks
• Hyperparameter tuning