Identifying the Dynamics of the Sea-Level Fluctuations in Croatia Using the RAPS Method

Abstract

Seawater level changes are affected by natural and anthropogenic impacts. While climate changes are considered to be a cause for all significant recent variations in meteorological and hydrological parameters, there is still a need for the analysis at the smaller regional scale, especially of the seawater level changes. A regional analysis is essential for early warning of upcoming changes that could, firstly, affect islands and coastal areas and, subsequently, expand on larger areas. The determined regional changes could affect the salinity of drinking water sources, increase the presence of natural flooding, and impact land degradation. In this paper, an analysis of local seawater level fluctuations is provided for three available locations in Croatia distributed along the Adriatic Sea’s coast. The rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method was used and applied on time series of the average daily seawater levels for each location. Visual interpretation of the RAPS method indicated the appearance of common regularities of the observed quantities, in this case, averaged daily seawater level changes. Also, it was shown that the regional shape and indentation of the coast did not have a strong effect on the seawater level’s rise. Seasonal changes in the sea level are mostly periodic and, therefore, have symmetry visible in its behavior. Fluctuations in the dynamics of sea level studied in this paper were not regular and predictable with simple linear equations, but the symmetry was also found to be present in the irregularities identified with the RAPS method.

Keywords

• sea level
• climate impact
• regularities
• climate changes
• RAPS
• Adriatic Sea