Study of Death and Injury Risks Dynamics of the Federal Fire-Fighting Service Personnel Using Time Series Smoothing

Abstract

Introduction. Studies of risks dynamics of death and injury of the Federal Fire-Fighting Service personnel in the performance of official duties for a long period (from 2006 to 2021) have shown that difficulties often arise due to the heterogeneity of data, their significant fluctuations in different periods of time and the influence of random factors.Problem Statement. In this paper, to study the risks of death and injury of personnel of the Federal Fire-Fighting Service of the State Fire Service in the performance of official duties, time series smoothing methods (the moving average method and the exponential smoothing method) were used, which made it possible to eliminate abnormal observations and reduce the influence of random factors.Theoretical Part. To identify trends in the risks of death and injury of personnel of the Federal Fire-Fighting Service of the State Fire Service in the performance of official duties, the method of time series smoothing was used. The methods of moving average and exponential smoothing are considered. The distribution of the risks of injury and death of the personnel of the Federal Fire-Fighting Service of the State Fire Service in the performance of official duties for the period 2006-2021 is shown, the average annual levels of injury and death risks for this period are determined, the dynamics of the ratio of the number of cases of injury and death in these years is considered.Conclusions. The number of registered cases of injuries has decreased due to the improvement of the occupational safety management system. During the period from 2006 to 2021, there was a reduction in the risk of injury to personnel by 4 times. The ratio of the number of injured and dead has significantly decreased (by more than three times) — from 31.5 to 9.4. In addition, as a result of occupational safety management system improvement, the number of injuries with severe and moderate damage has decreased due to their transition to the category of injuries with light damage.

Keywords

• временной ряд
• скользящее среднее
• экспоненциальное сглаживание
• травматизм
• гибель
• федеральная противопожарная служба