Monitoring, forecasting and analyzing the trend of 40 years of land cover/land use change around Yasuoj city

Abstract

The aim of this study was to determine, analyze and predict changes in LC/LU and the destruction trend of natural resources due to the growth of urbanization around Yasouj city. For this purpose, first, Landsat 5 and 8 satellite data were downloaded in August 1989, 1999, 2009 and 2009 from the Geological Survey of the United States. With performing the required radiometric and atmospheric corrections, the data layers were prepared. After, by creating a data set, the land cover/land use classification maps were prepared. Then, the coverage / user map in 1408 was predicted and prepared using the Markov automatic cell model. The results showed that the area of the range and forest in 1989 and 2019 has decreased from 22087 to 12381 and 16095 to 15332 hectares, respectively. The highest destruction of ranges and forests occurred between 1999 and 2009, and in contrast, the area of follow, residential, and construction areas has increased. The kappa coefficient and overall accuracy percentage values of the likelihood classification algorithm (0.77, 0.91, 0.89 and 0.9, and 84.4, 93.9, 91.9 and 92.5 percent, in 1989, 1999, 2009, and 2019, respectively) show that the classification model is appropriate to determine the classes. Based on the prediction map in 2029 using Markov’s Cellular Automata algorithm, the process of destroying and altering range and forest will continue over the next 10 years and agricultural and construction areas will be increasing in future.

Keywords

• land degradation
• land use classification
• landsat
• markov automatic cells model