Variation of Cones Production in a Silver Fir (<i>Abies alba</i> Mill.) Clonal Seed Orchard

Abstract

The current study is the first to describe fertility dynamics in a Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) seed orchard and among the few reporting related information from a mature seed orchard. The research aim was to evaluate the female cone production in order to provide support to future management measures. Observations were conducted in a clonal seed orchard from the Eastern Carpathians over six years; all the ramets of 44 clones and the zero-inflated data were analyzed with generalized lineal mixed effects models in a Bayesian framework. The results indicated a higher influence of the year and probably of the sensitivity to climate, and less variability between clones, in both the Poisson and zero-inflated components of cones production. The repeatability of mean annual clone production suggests moderate continuity of cone crops in the production rank of individual clones, while the estimates of heritability were under a moderate genetic control. The values of heritability were influenced by the reporting scale (latent vs. original data scale); therefore, caution in the analysis of non-Gaussian data and in comparisons of heritability between seed orchards is required. The variation of the female cone production was higher than expected for a seed orchard, but with marked variation across years, similar to other related indicators, patterns specific to mature, and productive commercial seed orchards. Several management options to be applied in the future were also discussed.

Keywords

• cone production variation
• zero-inflated
• Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
• seed orchard management
• South-Eastern Europe