Breast Cancer Risk Assessment using Gail Model in 35 to 69-year-old Women Referred to the Breast Cancer Screening Center at Omid Hospital in Isfahan, Iran, from 2008 to 2016

Abstract

Background: Prediction of breast cancer risk and identifying women who are at high risk of breast cancer, would be a great help for planning and conducting screening programs. The aim of this study was to estimate the 5-year breast cancer risk among women in Isfahan. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 9674 women aged 35-69 years who referred to the Breast Cancer Screening Centre at Omid Hospital in Isfahan from 2008 to 2016. Data were collected using a breast cancer risk assessment tool (Gail model). Any woman with Gail scores greater than 1.67% was considered as a high-risk woman for breast cancer. Using STATA 14, logistic regression was employed to determine the predictors of breast cancer risk at significance level of 5%. Results: The mean 5-year breast cancer risk (BRCA) for all women was 0.62 ± 0.39%, and 2.56% of women had 5 years breast cancer risk greater than or equal to 1.67%. There was a relationship between the 5-year risk of breast cancer and age, age at menarche, age at first live birth, family history of breast cancer, and history of breast biopsy. Conclusion: According to the results, the Gail model can predict the risk of breast cancer and may be employed as a breast cancer risk assessment tool in screening and prevention of breast cancer program.

Keywords

• breast cancer
• risk assessment
• gail model
• isfahan