Are narrow-ranging species doomed to extinction? Projected dramatic decline in future climate suitability of two highly threatened species

Abstract

Narrow-ranging species are usually omitted from Species distribution models (SDMs) due to statistical constraints, while they are predicted to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. The recently available high-resolution environmental predictors, along with recently developed methods enable to increase the eligibility of narrow-ranging species for SDMs, provided their distribution is well known. We fill a gap of knowledge on the effect of predicted climate change on narrow-ranging species. We modelled the distribution of the golden mantella frog Mantella aurantiaca and the Manapany day gecko Phelsuma inexpectata, for which the distribution of their occurrence records is well documented. Our modelling scheme included a range of processes susceptible to address statistical issues related to narrow-ranging species. We predict an alarming decline in climate suitability in the whole current distribution area of both species by 2070, potentially leading to a complete extinction in most scenarios. We identified the areas with the best climate suitability in the future, but these remain largely suboptimal regarding species climatic niche. The high level of habitat fragmentation suggests that both species likely need to be at least partly translocated. Climate change may not only drive range contractions or distribution shifts in narrow-ranging species, but may lead to the complete extirpation of suitable environments across their entire region. This study suggests that the level of threats of narrow-ranging species already identified as threatened may be underestimated, especially in heterogeneous tropical areas. We stress the need to develop sampling campaigns and implement proactive actions for narrow-ranging species in the tropics.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Ensemble of Small Models
• Jackknife
• Madagascar
• Mantella aurantiaca
• Phelsuma inexpectata