Energy system improvement planning under drought condition based on a two-stage optimization model: The desire for sustainability through the promoting of system’s resilience

Abstract

Energy is one of the most important social and economic infrastructures and human life is strongly depends on it. In recent years, the occurrence of natural disasters such as drought as a high-impact low-probability event is undeniable. So, energy planning in the disruption situation is necessary in order to anticipate and maintain the performance of the energy system in optimal condition. This paper focuses on developing a hybrid long-term framework for evaluating the energy system resilience based on sustainability concept against drought. The model bridges the gap between long-term energy system planning in macro level and short-term switching operations or micro level modeling​ approach in response to drought resulted by climate change. The new resilience indexes are used to maximize the social welfare, to minimize the energy needed but not supplied (ENNS), to recover the system performance rapidly and minimum the total cost of the energy system after occurring drought. When disaster happens, the modeling of energy systems will do through two stages because the behavior of the system should be considered, compare and analyzed before and after disruption events. On the other hand, the system uncertainties, possible futures and different strategies can change the optimal path of the energy needed supply, which is examined by scenario analysis in the proposed model. So, the developed model is a two-stage optimization model with linear programming approach and scenario analyzing model with a combination of back-casting and forward future approaches Numerical model is performed on UTOPIA energy system and its results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords

• Energy system planning
• Energy resilience
• Long-term optimization framework
• Natural disaster
• Sustainability indicators