Spatiotemporal Urban Waterlogging Risk Assessment Incorporating Human and Vehicle Distribution

Abstract

Due to the increase in frequency and severity, assessing and predicting urban waterlogging risk is critical. The risk assessment framework is based on three factors: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The assessment indicators, previously based solely on static indicators, account for the effects of varying temporal and spatial distributions of people and vehicles on the assessment results. Specifically, two dynamic indicators—the population density and the Traffic Performance Index (TPI)—are added to the mix to dynamically assess the risk of waterlogging in the central urban area of Suqian City of Jiangsu Province, China’s central urban area, over various periods. The findings indicate that four–six times more individuals are affected during peak hours than during other periods, and no important roads are within the scope of waterlogging during other periods, while nearly ten important roads will be affected during peak hours. Additionally, the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution of waterlogging risk can be more accurately represented by a combination of static and dynamic indicators. The highest risk areas are significantly more prominent during the weekday peak period than during other times; the morning peak is mainly affected by traffic performance indicators, the evening peak is mainly affected by population density, and the main factors affecting the other periods are the same as the other main factors affecting the peak period. The highest risk areas are mainly located in the eastern part of the central urban area of Suqian City, with the lowest risk in the north and south.

Keywords

• waterlogging
• risk assessment
• dynamic assessment
• GIS
• spatial and temporal distribution