Cybergeo (Mar 2007)
Modélisation géomatique rétrospective des paysages par évaluation multicritères et multiobjectifs
Abstract
Geographic information systems includes, among a variety of analytical functions, those intended for spatial-temporal modelling and decision support, particularly multi-criteria evaluation and multi-objective evaluation. These tools are particularly useful for simulation scenarios because of reproducibility of results and the possibility to define the amount of trade off and risk in the decision process. This paper focuses on methodology and results obtained for retrospective land cover modelling in the Alpujarra Alta Granadina (Andalusia, Spain), related to a knowledge database about land cover dynamics from the XVI century to XX century.Multi-criteria evaluation produces a lot of land use potential maps, also called suitability maps, one for every objective (land use category). It is based on a chronological set of land use maps, and criteria which are considered responsible for the observed changes and aptitude to receive an agricultural use. After that, the multi-objective evaluation resolves the incompatibilities between the potentials uses for the chronological set (1572, 1752, 1855/61), and rebuilt probabilistic historical maps based in the statistical surfaces. The results show the probable location for a specific use and enable the testing of the methodology and to specify some contributions and limits, thus permitting a validation for lack of historic comparable documents.
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