Global Sustainability (Jan 2021)
Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan
- Erik Pihl,
- Eva Alfredsson,
- Magnus Bengtsson,
- Kathryn J. Bowen,
- Vanesa Cástan Broto,
- Kuei Tien Chou,
- Helen Cleugh,
- Kristie Ebi,
- Clea M. Edwards,
- Eleanor Fisher,
- Pierre Friedlingstein,
- Alex Godoy-Faúndez,
- Mukesh Gupta,
- Alexandra R. Harrington,
- Katie Hayes,
- Bronwyn M. Hayward,
- Sophie R. Hebden,
- Thomas Hickmann,
- Gustaf Hugelius,
- Tatiana Ilyina,
- Robert B. Jackson,
- Trevor F. Keenan,
- Ria A. Lambino,
- Sebastian Leuzinger,
- Mikael Malmaeus,
- Robert I. McDonald,
- Celia McMichael,
- Clark A. Miller,
- Matteo Muratori,
- Nidhi Nagabhatla,
- Harini Nagendra,
- Cristian Passarello,
- Josep Penuelas,
- Julia Pongratz,
- Johan Rockström,
- Patricia Romero-Lankao,
- Joyashree Roy,
- Adam A. Scaife,
- Peter Schlosser,
- Edward Schuur,
- Michelle Scobie,
- Steven C. Sherwood,
- Giles B. Sioen,
- Jakob Skovgaard,
- Edgardo A. Sobenes Obregon,
- Sebastian Sonntag,
- Joachim H. Spangenberg,
- Otto Spijkers,
- Leena Srivastava,
- Detlef B. Stammer,
- Pedro H. C. Torres,
- Merritt R. Turetsky,
- Anna M. Ukkola,
- Detlef P. van Vuuren,
- Christina Voigt,
- Chadia Wannous,
- Mark D. Zelinka
Affiliations
- Erik Pihl
- ORCiD
- Future Earth Global Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden
- Eva Alfredsson
- Division of Sustainable Development and Environmental Science and Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
- Magnus Bengtsson
- Hot or Cool Institute, Berlin, Germany
- Kathryn J. Bowen
- Climate Change Institute, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
- Vanesa Cástan Broto
- Urban Institute, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Kuei Tien Chou
- Risk Society and Policy Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Helen Cleugh
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Canberra, Australia
- Kristie Ebi
- Department of Global Health, Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
- Clea M. Edwards
- ORCiD
- Arizona State University, Global Futures Laboratory, Tempe, USA
- Eleanor Fisher
- The Nordic Africa Institute, Uppsala, Sweden
- Pierre Friedlingstein
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- Alex Godoy-Faúndez
- ORCiD
- Sustainability Research Centre, Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago de Chile, Chile
- Mukesh Gupta
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Asian University for Women, Chittagong, Bangladesh
- Alexandra R. Harrington
- Center for International Sustainable Development Law, Montreal, Canada Fulbright Canada Foundation, Ottawa, Canada Albany Law School, Albany, USA
- Katie Hayes
- Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada
- Bronwyn M. Hayward
- Department of Political Science, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand The Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
- Sophie R. Hebden
- Future Earth Global Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden
- Thomas Hickmann
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Gustaf Hugelius
- Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Tatiana Ilyina
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
- Robert B. Jackson
- Earth System Science Department, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, USA Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, USA
- Trevor F. Keenan
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, USA Earth and Environmental Science Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., Berkeley, USA
- Ria A. Lambino
- Future Earth Asia Regional Center, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan
- Sebastian Leuzinger
- Auckland University of Technology, School of Science, Auckland, New Zealand
- Mikael Malmaeus
- IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
- Robert I. McDonald
- Center for Sustainability Science, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, USA
- Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- Clark A. Miller
- College of Global Futures, Arizona State University, Tempe, USA
- Matteo Muratori
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, USA
- Nidhi Nagabhatla
- United Nations University, Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU INWEH), Hamilton, Canada McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada
- Harini Nagendra
- Center for Climate Change and Sustainability, Azim Premji University, Bangalore, India
- Cristian Passarello
- Future Earth Global Secretariat, Paris, France
- Josep Penuelas
- Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, CSIC and CREAF, Madrid, Spain
- Julia Pongratz
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich, Munich, Germany
- Johan Rockström
- University of Potsdam, Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
- Patricia Romero-Lankao
- Center for Integrated Mobility Sciences, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, USA Mansueto Institute for Urban Innovation, University of Chicago, Chicago, USA
- Joyashree Roy
- Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Change, Asian Institute of Technology, Khlong Nueng, Thailand Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India
- Adam A. Scaife
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- Peter Schlosser
- Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory, Global Institute of Sustainability and Innovation, Arizona State University, Tempe, USA
- Edward Schuur
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, USA Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, USA
- Michelle Scobie
- Institute of International Relations, The University of the West Indies, Saint Augustine, Trinidad & Tobago
- Steven C. Sherwood
- Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, Australia
- Giles B. Sioen
- Future Earth Global Secretariat, Tokyo, Japan National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
- Jakob Skovgaard
- Department of Political Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
- Edgardo A. Sobenes Obregon
- Independent Consultant in Public International Law, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Sebastian Sonntag
- Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany
- Joachim H. Spangenberg
- SERI Germany, Sustainable Europe Research Institute, Cologne, Germany
- Otto Spijkers
- China Institute of Boundary and Ocean Studies (CIBOS), Research Institute of Environmental Law (RIEL) and International Water Law Academy (IWLA), Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
- Leena Srivastava
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- Detlef B. Stammer
- Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
- Pedro H. C. Torres
- Institute of Energy and Environment, University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
- Merritt R. Turetsky
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Department, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, USA
- Anna M. Ukkola
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and Research, School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
- Detlef P. van Vuuren
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands Department of Climate, Air and Energy, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag, The Netherlands
- Christina Voigt
- Department of Public and International Law, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Chadia Wannous
- Towards A Safer World Network (TASW), Stockholm, Sweden Future-Earth Health Knowledge Action Network, Stockholm, Sweden
- Mark D. Zelinka
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, USA
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.2
- Journal volume & issue
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Vol. 4
Abstract
Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
Keywords
- climate anxiety
- climate feedbacks
- climate governance
- climate impacts
- climate litigation
- climate mitigation
- climate models
- climate policy
- environmental economics
- future earth
- risk governance
- thermokarst
- urban transformations
- water stress
