Maximum entropy modelling for predicting the potential distribution of Invasive Rugose Spiralling Whitefly, Aleurodicus rugioperculatus in India

Abstract

The potential distribution of invasive rugose spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus rugioperculatus Martin (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) was predicted under present (2020) and future climate change emission scenarios in 2050 and 2070 under four representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche modelling. The model performance was assessed using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic values. Spatial mapping of habitat suitability for rugose spiralling whitefly suitability maps was prepared for each selected climate scenarios. The study revealed that the most dominant climatic factors i.e annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, precipitation seasonality and iso-thermality with 23.2, 21.4,17.5 and 16.4% respectively were significantly influenced the potential distribution and establishment of rugose spiralling whitefly. Eastern coastal parts of Tamil Nadu, North-Eastern parts of Andhra Pradesh, Eastern coastal belts of Odisha, North-Western coastal belts of Kerala, South-Western coastal parts of Karnataka and Western coastal belts of Maharashtra and Gujarat were predicted the highest habitat suitability places/ regions. The present study data would help to formulate control measures for monitoring, surveillance and early pest warning of rugose spiralling whitefly and combating outbreaks well in advance in newer geographical locations.

Keywords

• Climate change
• rugose spiralling whitefly
• species distribution models