Exploring tourists’ preferences and willingness to pay for national park recreation improvements based on regret and utility comparison

Abstract

Abstract Research on the improvement of national park recreation policies has attracted much attention to discrete choice experiments to obtain tourists’ preferences and willingness to pay. However, individual choice behavior is extremely complex, and the single Random Utility Maximization (RUM) model ignores anticipated regret and is insufficient to explain individuals’ actual choice behavior. To investigate whether regret influences tourists’ choices regarding the improvement of national park recreation attributes, this study introduces the Random Regret Minimization (RRM) model and explores the performance of polynomial logit models and hybrid latent class models in analyzing discrete choice models based on utility and regret. By constructing a hybrid utility-regret model, we examine how tourists trade off between attributes such as vegetation coverage, water clarity, amount of litter, and level of crowding in national park recreation. Results indicate that the RRM model has better goodness-of-fit and predictive ability than the RUM model, indicating that regret is a significant choice paradigm, and the hybrid model better explains respondents’ choices. Specifically, 62.5% of tourists’ choices are driven by regret, and regret-driven respondents are more inclined to increase vegetation coverage and improve water clarity, while utility-driven respondents are more inclined to reduce litter and crowding. This study not only provides a reference for managers to develop more optimal recreation improvement strategies but also offers theoretical insights for national park recreation improvement policies.

Keywords

• National park recreation improvement
• Discrete choice experiments
• Utility maximization
• Regret minimization
• Willingness to pay
• Preferences heterogeneity