Shifts in amphibian population dynamics in response to a change in the predator community

Abstract

Abstract Predation can affect prey behavior, demography, abundance, and distribution, particularly in lentic freshwater ecosystems. Fish are predators known to reduce the abundance of their prey and to restrict the distribution of species. Using time series which spanned 43 and 22 yr, respectively, we analyzed the effect of a change in the fish predator community on the dynamics of two pond‐breeding amphibian populations (Rana temporaria and Rana dalmatina). Specifically, we used a state‐space time series model which allows for density dependence and observation error, to ask whether the change in predation risk affects population growth rate and the return point around which the populations fluctuate. The results showed that the type of observation error assumed did not affect the biological parameters. We found evidence for density dependence in both populations. The effect of the change in fish predation on population growth rate and the return point was strong in the population where fish invaded a previously fish‐free pond. The effect was weaker in the population where the change was from cyprinid fish to pike. The results showed that fish predation can have strong effects on amphibian population dynamics. The observed population dynamical pattern is phenomenologically similar to alternative stable states.

Keywords

• alternative stable state
• density dependence
• observation error
• population growth rate
• state‐space time series model