Reducing Terrorism Casualties: Analyzing Policies Effectiveness under a Systems Perspective

Abstract

The present paper seeks to analyze and understand terrorism as a comprehensive process that, through various stages, transforms a “normal” individual with some grievances into a radicalized agent ready and available to be recruited and trained to perform terror attacks that produce casualties. The goal of this analysis is to produce recommendations regarding the leverage points in which policy interventions may be used to reduce the number of casualties that terror attacks in the west, and specifically in Europe, produce. To this end, the analysis is divided into two main sections. The first section will focus on a careful study of key literature regarding terrorism. A deep analysis is conducted in order to construct a qualitative understanding of radicalization and terrorism, finding common points among what is analyzed and developing a strong overview and understanding of the topic. The second section—the core of the paper—focuses on creating a novel System Dynamics model and on identifying leverage points. In this section, the System Dynamics model is used to construct a simulation model based on the findings from the first section. This model is then simulated on Silico.app® through various scenarios in order to identify leverage points in which policies would be best able to reach the stated goal of reducing casualties. Following these simulations, a few leverage points were evidenced, and some effective policies were also identified. The last section recaps the main findings of the analysis, its limitations and future extensions of the model (so to allow for deeper and more precise policy insight), and it is argued that System Dynamics can constitute a very powerful modeling approach in the context of counter terrorism policy making.

Keywords

• terrorism
• radicalization
• ISIS
• Al Qaeda
• system dynamics
• policy modeling