The economy of Tuscany in the post Covid-19 era: struggling with energy crisis and inflation. What to do to resume the journey?¹

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has wrought significant challenges on both national and regional economic systems, resulting in an exacerbation of poverty and a deceleration of economic growth. These repercussions have led to increased social tensions and discontent. Tuscany a key player in the Italian and European economies, warrants scrutiny concerning its economic structure post-pandemic, particularly in relation to the role played by industry districts and the ways for it to get out of the crisis and get back on track. This paper undertakes an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the Tuscan economy, with a focus on EMAS-APO industry districts. It examines the region's standing in terms of national and European ERCI competitiveness, placing it at an average level. Additionally, the region ranks in the third decile of the DESI digitalization, indicating a commendable technological dynamism. An equally satisfying spending power in R&D, in percentage of GDP higher than the national one, and ranking 6th in the regions' rank, is flanked by a particularly vigorous innovation capacity of the production sector. Employing a symmetric branch-by-branch SAM 2019 analysis, derived from a sector-by-product 2014 SAM constructed by IRPET, serves as the foundational step in understanding the interventions and investments necessary for resuming growth. While affirming Tuscany's competitiveness, digitalization and technological dynamism, the analysis underscores the pivotal role of manufacturing. Notably, the textile, fashion and leather sectors hold significant weight, along with the slightly less impactful paper and pharmaceutical sectors, and the noteworthy role of tourism. The region emerges as innovative, competitive and export-oriented, albeit with certain sectors grappling with environmental challenges. The IMM based analysis reveals a satisfactory average integration degree of the production system, suggesting that, for an effective, robust and sustainable post-Covid recovery and economic resurgence, focused investments and demand stimulus policy should be directed towards the textile, fashion and leather industries. Additionally, there is a strong indication to channel investments into pharmaceuticals and health care, and on transportation (especially freight transportation), as well as wholesale and retail trade. While weaker, there is a notable suggestion to invest in metallurgy, computer hardware, tourism and paper industries.

Keywords

• tuscany
• covid-19
• regional economic system
• economic districts
• symmetric branch-by-branch sam
• impact multiplier model
• endogenous accounts
• exogenous accounts