Risk to North American birds from climate change‐related threats

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is a significant threat to biodiversity globally. Here, we assessed the risk to 544 birds in the United States from future climate change‐related threats under a mitigation‐dependent global warming scenario of 1.5°C and an unmitigated scenario of 3.0°C. Threats considered included sea level rise, human land cover conversion, and extreme weather events. We identified potential impacts to individual species by overlaying future bird ranges with threats to calculate the proportion of species' ranges affected, and mapped a place‐based index of risk based on hazard (coincident threats), exposure (potential species richness), and vulnerability (potential richness of vulnerable species). Extreme weather events had the most extensive spatial coverage and contribution to risk, but urbanization and sea level rise also had disproportionate impacts on species relative to their coverage. With unmitigated climate change, multiple coincident threats affected over 88% of the area of the conterminous United States, and 97% of species could be affected by two or more climate‐related threats. Some habitat groups will see up to 96% of species facing three or more threats. Species of conservation concern also faced more threats regardless of climate change scenario. However, climate change mitigation would reduce risk to birds from climate change‐related threats across over 90% of the US.

Keywords

• biodiversity
• climate change policy
• climate change vulnerability
• extreme weather
• global change
• Paris agreement