Evaluation of the Operational Global Ocean Wave Forecasting System of China

Abstract

Based on the WAVEWATCH III wave model, China’s National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center has developed an operational global ocean wave forecasting system that covers the Arctic region. In this study, in situ buoy observations and satellite remote sensing data were used to perform a detailed evaluation of the system’s forecasting results for 2022, with a focus on China’s offshore and global ocean waters, so as to comprehensively understand the model’s forecasting performance. The study results showed the following: In China’s coastal waters, the model had a high forecasting accuracy for significant wave heights. The model tended to underestimate the significant wave heights in autumn and winter and overestimate them in spring and summer. In addition, the model slightly underestimated low (below 1 m) wave heights, while overestimating them in other ranges. In terms of spatial distribution, negative deviations and high scatter indexes were observed in the forecasting of significant wave heights in semi-enclosed sea areas such as the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and Beibu Gulf, with the largest negative deviation occurring near Liaodong Bay of the Bohai Sea (−0.18 m). There was a slight positive deviation (0.01 m) in the East China Sea, while the South China Sea exhibited a more significant positive deviation (0.17 m). The model showed a trend of underestimation for the forecasting of the mean wave period in China’s coastal waters. In the global oceanic waters, the forecasting results of the model were found to have obvious positive deviations for most regions, with negative deviations mainly occurring on the east coast and in relatively closed basins. There were latitude differences in the forecasting deviations of the model: specifically, the most significant positive deviations occurred in the Southern Ocean, with smaller positive deviations toward the north, while a slight negative deviation was observed in the Arctic waters. Overall, the global wave model has high reliability and can meet the current operational forecasting needs. In the future, the accuracy and performance of ocean wave forecasting can be further improved by adjusting the parameterization scheme, replacing the wind fields with more accurate ones, adopting spherical multiple-cell grids, and data assimilation.

Keywords

• evaluation
• ocean wave forecasting
• wave height
• wave period