Modeling Traffic Flows with Fluid Flow Model

Abstract

This Research presents a macroscopic model of traffic flow as the basis for making Intelligent Transportation System (ITS). The data used for modeling is The number of passing vehicles per three minutes. The traffic flow model created in The form of Fluid Flow Model (FFM). The parameters in The model are obtained by mixture Gaussian distribution approach. The distribution consists of two Gaussian distributions, each representing the mode of traffic flow. In The distribution, intermode shifting process is illustrated by the first-order Markov chain process. The parameters values are estimated using The Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. After The required parameter values are obtained, traffic flow is estimated using the Observation and transition-based most likely estimates Tracking Particle Filter (OTPF). To Examine the accuracy of the model has been made, the model estimation results are compared with the actual traffic flow data. Traffic flow data is collected on Monday 20 September 2017 at 06.00 to 10.00 on Dipatiukur Road, Bandung. The proposed model has accuracy with MAPE value below 10%, or falls into highly accurate categories.

Keywords

• fluid flow model
• expectation-maximization
• particle filter
• otpf
• intelligent transportation systems
• gaussian distributions
• mixture gaussian
• markov chain