Comprehensive dynamic evaluation model and empirical research of provincial resilience in China

Abstract

Resilience has become an important guiding ideology of modern urban governance. Using the panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in mainland China from 2016 to 2021, from the six dimensions of society, economy, institution, infrastructure, environment and community, the primary selection, optimization and screening of evaluation indicators are carried out. Embodying development tendency over time, the evaluation indicator system including 30 indicators is finally established. And empirical research is finished. Through resilience analysis, the resilience change characteristics of each province under temporal and spatial differences are compared, and the response mechanism and scope of influence factors for resilience are analyzed. The results show that there are obvious temporal and spatial differences in resilience among provinces. On the whole, Beijing Shi has the greatest resilience and Guizhou has the smallest resilience. Maintaining and enhancing resilience is an important issue for Beijing Shi, and Guizhou is under the greatest pressure to enhance resilience. Solid waste disposal, harmless disposal of domestic waste, and comprehensive population coverage of TV programs are the top three determinants of resilience. The maintenance and improvement of provincial resilience first need to consider environmental and social dimensions.

Keywords

• China’s provinces
• Resilience
• Dynamic evaluation
• Indicator system
• Empirical research