Intersecting vulnerabilities: climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes-borne viruses in the United States

Abstract

Understanding how climate change and demographic factors may shape future population exposure to viruses such as Zika, dengue, or chikungunya, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes is essential to improving public health preparedness. In this study, we combine projections of cumulative monthly Aedes -borne virus transmission risk with spatially explicit population projections for vulnerable demographic groups to explore future county-level population exposure across the conterminous United States. We employ a scenario matrix—combinations of climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) and socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)—to assess the full range of uncertainty in emissions, socioeconomic development, and demographic change. Human exposure is projected to increase under most scenarios, up to + 177% at the national scale in 2080 under SSP5*RCP8.5 relative to a historical baseline. Projected exposure changes are predominantly driven by population changes in vulnerable demographic groups, although climate change is also important, particularly in the western region where future exposure would be about 30% lower under RCP2.6 compared to RCP8.5. The results emphasize the crucial role that socioeconomic and demographic change play in shaping future population vulnerability and exposure to Aedes -borne virus transmission risk in the United States, and underline the importance of including socioeconomic scenarios in projections of climate-related vector-borne disease impacts.

Keywords

• Climate impacts
• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
• Vector-borne diseases
• Aedes mosquitoes
• Representative Concentration Pathways
• Scenarios