A study of seasonal rainfall in Vietnam at the end of 21st century according to the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model

Abstract

This article presents analyses of changes in the seasonal characteristics of the far future climate (2080-2099) across Vietnam as projected by the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM) in terms of the RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) scenario. The results show significant changes in seasonal rainfall in Vietnam compared with the 1982- 2003 baseline period. Specifically, the June-August rainfall is projected to increase in South Central (SCVN), Central Highlands (CHVN), and South Vietnam (SVN), but to decrease by approximately 50% in North Central (NCVN) and off the Central coast. In the September-November season, the NHRCM detects an increase in rainfall of about 50% in North Vietnam (NVN) and CHVN. The increase and decrease in rainfall are due to the convergence and divergence of moisture flux that might be associated with the westward expansion of the Northwestern Pacific High Pressure in the far future.

Keywords

• geopotential height
• moisture flux
• NHRCM model
• rainfall
• 850 hPa winds