Effects of vehicle safety design on road traffic deaths, injuries, and public health burden in the Latin American region: a modelling study

Abstract

Summary: Background: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which aim to halve global traffic deaths by 2020, will not be met by most low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region, traffic deaths have remained stable at a high-level despite strong progress in other health domains. We evaluated the effects of road safety interventions in LAC and estimated the benefits that vehicle design improvements would have in this region. Methods: In our study done in October, 2018, we used a counterfactual analysis to assess the reduction in deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost if eight proven vehicle safety technologies were made more widely available in LAC countries. We estimated: (1) country-level incidence of traffic injuries, (2) the effectiveness of technologies through a systematic literature review, (3) the prevalence of car safety technologies, and (4) the lives saved and DALYs averted if all cars had these technologies. We characterised uncertainty in estimates by reporting the sensitivity of the results to alternative modelling assumptions. Findings: Increasing availability of electronic stability control, which includes antilock-brake systems, would have the largest benefits in the LAC region, estimated at 19·4% (sensitivity analysis range 8·6–31·1) fewer deaths and 17·0% (5·7–29·2) fewer DALYs. Increasing use of seatbelts would reduce deaths by 12·1% (9·1–15·5) and DALYs by 12·6% (9·4–16·3). Optimisation for side-impacts would result in 6·3% (3·1–6·5) fewer deaths, and improvements to vehicle front-end design would result in 6·0% (2·2–10·4) fewer deaths. The overall effect of improved vehicle design in the region would be 28·1% (12·8–39·2) fewer deaths, and 29·1% (13·5–39·8) fewer DALYs. Other safety technologies modelled, including airbag (front and side), side door beam, and side structure and padding, have smaller benefits. Interpretation: Regulating and encouraging the use of proven vehicle safety technologies in LMICs would have large gains and needs to be prioritised in the SDG agenda for 2030. Funding: Inter-American Development Bank.