Projected Heat Waves in Ecuador under Climate Change: Insights from HadGEM-RegCM4 Coupled Model

Abstract

This study examines heat wave projections across Ecuador’s Coastal, Highlands, and Amazon regions for 1975–2004 and 2070–2099 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Employing dynamic downscaling, we identify significant increases in heatwave intensity and maximum air temperatures (Tmax), particularly under RCP 8.5, with the Coastal region facing the most severe impacts. A moderate positive correlation between Tmax and climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) suggests regional climatic influences on heatwave trends. These findings highlight the critical need for integrated climate adaptation strategies in Ecuador, focusing on mitigating risks to health, agriculture, and ecosystems. Proposed measures include urban forestry initiatives and the promotion of cool surfaces, alongside enhancing public awareness and access to cooling resources. This research contributes to the understanding of climate change impacts in Latin America, underscoring the urgency of adopting targeted adaptation and resilience strategies against urban heat island effects in Ecuador’s urban centers.

Keywords

• heatwaves
• Ecuador
• regional climate model
• RegCM4
• HadGEM