PREVISÃO PELO SERVIÇO DE FORNECIMENTO DE ÁGUA NO SEMIÁRIDO BRASILEIRO: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins

Abstract

The problem of drought in the Brazilian semiarid region is one of the limiting factors for economic development of the region, since the lack of water also hindering the lives of thousands of people, prevents various income-generating activities to be conducted. In face of this problem the federal government created the program emergency water distribution of the federal government known as “Operation Pipa”. Thus, this study aims to forecast demand for this service water supply in this region considering that such information is significant in the process of decision making time to allocate the available resources and the development of more effective policies. For this we used the Box-Jenkins methodology for the period January 2003 to August 2010, provided by the Ministry of National Integration, through the Secretary of National Defense and by the Land Operations Command of the Brazilian Army. The results showed that the model was most appropriate seasonal model SARIMA (2,0,1) (1,1,0) 12. Forecasts suggest that there is indeed an increase in demand for water in the region. Concludes that only effective measures of dealing with the drought that could reverse such need.

Keywords

• demand forecasting
• water
• semiarid
• box
• jenkins models
• time series