Evaluation of Various Resolution DEMs in Flood Risk Assessment and Practical Rules for Flood Mapping in Data-Scarce Geospatial Areas: A Case Study in Thessaly, Greece

Abstract

Floods are lethal and destructive natural hazards. The Mediterranean, including Greece, has recently experienced many flood events (e.g., Medicanes Zorbas and Ianos), while climate change results in more frequent and intense flood events. Accurate flood mapping in river areas is crucial for flood risk assessment, planning mitigation measures, protecting existing infrastructure, and sustainable planning. The accuracy of results is affected by all simplifying assumptions concerning the conceptual and numerical model implemented and the quality of geospatial data used (Digital Terrain Models—DTMs). The current research investigates flood modelling sensitivity against geospatial data accuracy using the following DTM resolutions in a mountainous river sub-basin of Thessaly’s Water District (Greece): (a) open 5 m and (b) 2 m data from Hellenic Cadastre (HC) and (c) 0.05 m data from an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) topographical mission. RAS-Mapper and HEC-RAS are used for 1D (steady state) hydraulic simulation regarding a 1000-year return period. Results include flood maps and cross section-specific flow characteristics. They are analysed in a graphical flood map-based empirical fashion, whereas a statistical analysis based on the correlation matrix and a more sophisticated Machine Learning analysis based on the interpretation of nonlinear relationships between input–output variables support and particularise the conclusions in a quantifiable manner.

Keywords

• hydraulic simulation
• flood maps
• digital elevation model
• random forests
• UAV mapping
• DEM sensitivity