Stability and Financial Performance of Banks in European Countries Bordering the Military Conflict in Ukraine

Abstract

The paper examines the impact of the war in Ukraine on the financial condition and stability of banks in Central and Eastern European nations directly bordering on the countries involved in the military conflict, i.e., Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus. The research sample, consisting of 93 banks and 45 analysed variables, was selected based on the systematic literature review presented. The empirical study uses the system generalised method of moments (SGMM). To capture the studied impact, both binary and interactive variables were used. The results are discussed in relation to banking variables and those related to the macroeconomic situation. The study allowed us to conclude that there has been no significant deterioration in the capital position of banks. However, it showed a significant negative impact of several variables on the condition and stability of the studied banks, as captured by other indicators. Additionally, the significance of 22 interactive variables indicates that the war in Ukraine has had a real impact on banks in the examined countries. Moreover, the results suggest that banks in countries with higher debt or budget deficits may be more affected by the war.

Keywords

• banking sector
• systemic risk
• war in ukraine
• system generalised method of moments
• bank stability