The correlation between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature of Colombo district, Sri Lanka 2005–2014

Abstract

Background: Meteorological factors affect dengue transmission. Mechanisms of the way in which different diurnal temperatures, ranging around different mean temperatures, influence dengue transmission were published after 2011. Objective: We endeavored to determine the correlation between dengue incidence and diurnal temperature ranges (DTRs) in Colombo district, Sri Lanka, and to explore the possibilities of using our findings to improve control of dengue. Design: We calculated the weekly dengue incidence in Colombo during 2005–2014, after data on all of the reported dengue patients and estimated mid-year populations were collected. We obtained daily maximum and minimum temperatures from two Colombo weather stations, averaged, and converted them into weekly data. Weekly averages of DTR versus dengue incidence graphs were plotted and correlations observed. The count of days per week with a DTR of >7.5°C and 7.5°C with an 8-week lag period, and a positive correlation between dengue incidence and a DTR<7.5°C, also with an 8-week lag. Conclusions: Large DTRs were negatively correlated with dengue transmission in Colombo district. We propose to take advantage of that in local dengue control efforts. Our results agree with previous studies on the topic and with a mathematical model of relative vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti. Global warming and declining DTR are likely to favor a rise of dengue, and we suggest a simple method to mitigate this.

Keywords

• dengue
• diurnal temperature range
• mathematical models
• climate change
• urban heat islands