Development and validation of an ultrasound-based estimated fetal weight reference for Chinese twin pregnancy: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Background Fetal growth monitoring is important for twin pregnancies. However, there has been no clinically validated tool for monitoring fetal growth of twin pregnancies in China. This study aims to develop and validate a chorionicity-specific growth chart of ultrasound estimated fetal weight (EFW) for Chinese twin pregnancies. Methods This retrospective cohort study included all twin pregnancies who delivered two live fetuses with gestational age ≥ 34 weeks without severe obstetric complications at a tertiary hospital from January 2007 to March 2021. The participants were divided into a development set (delivered in or before December 2017) and a validation set (delivered in or after January 2018). Chorionicity-specific growth charts were created using the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) based on the development set. The fetuses from the validation set were classified into three groups based on the last EFW: small-for-gestational-age (SGA) indicated by both the newly established twin charts and the Hadlock singleton chart currently used for twin pregnancies in China, suspected SGA indicated by only the singleton chart, and no SGA indicated by either chart. The incidence of neonatal outcomes among the three groups was then compared accordingly, including intensive care unit (NICU) stay length, respiratory diseases, and neurological disorders. Results The development set included 883 twin pregnancies and a total of 6374 EFW measurements between 16 and 38 weeks of gestation, and the validation set included 801 twin pregnancies and 7630 EFW measurements. In the development set, monochorionic diamniotic (MCDA) twins had a significantly lower EFW compared to dichorionic diamniotic (DCDA) twins beginning at 26 weeks, with the difference gradually increasing thereafter, supporting the establishment of chorionicity-specific growth charts. Of the 1,602 twin neonates in the validation set, 103 (6.4%) were classified into the SGA group, 164 (10.2%) into the suspected SGA group, and 1335 (83.3%) into the no SGA group. The incidence of respiratory diseases and neurological disorders was comparable between the suspected SGA group and the no SGA group, but apparently higher in the SGA group. Meanwhile, NICU stay lengths were consistently longer for twins in the SGA group compared to the no SGA group (difference: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.31–0.83), with no significant differences observed between the suspected SGA and no SGA groups. Conclusions The fetal growth trajectories differed by chorionicity, with a lower EFW for MCDA twins beginning at 26 weeks. The establishment of chorionicity-specific growth chart could reduce overdiagnosis of SGA and improve fetal growth monitoring of twin pregnancies.

Keywords

• Chorionicity
• Estimated fetal weight
• Growth charts
• Twin pregnancy
• Fetal growth restriction
• Small for gestational age