Impacts of seasonal climate variation on rice yield: Evidence from the Central Coast of Vietnam

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of seasonal climate change on rice productivity in Vietnam’s Central Coast, using 26 years of data from 1996 to 2021. To achieve this objective, the study applies a Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) model to obtain robust estimates for the panel analysis. The findings reveal the consequences of climate variation on rice productivity throughout different seasons. Notably, increases in maximum temperature during the winter–spring season and minimum temperature during the summer–autumn season boost rice yields, while higher maximum temperatures in summer–autumn and minimum temperatures in winter–spring reduce yields. Specifically, a 1% increase in maximum temperature improves winter–spring yields by 1.66% but reduces summer–autumn yields by 1.01%, while a 1% rise in minimum temperature decreases winter–spring yields by 0.30% but enhances summer–autumn yields by 3.32%. In addition, increases in both maximum and minimum relative humidity positively impact yields. The study also finds that a 1% increase in maximum precipitation slightly reduces summer–autumn yields. These findings provide important insights for developing strategies to improve the resilience of rice production to climate change.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Central Vietnam
• FGLS model
• paddy productivity
• seasonal effects
• Sustainable Development