A new approach for location-specific seasonal outlooks of typhoon and super typhoon frequency across the Western North Pacific region

Abstract

Abstract With an average of 26 tropical cyclones (TCs) per year, the western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active TC basin in the world. Considerable exposure lies in the coastal regions of the WNP, which extends from Japan in the north to the Philippines in the south, amplifying TC related impacts, including loss of life and damage to property, infrastructure and environment. This study presents a new location-specific typhoon (TY) and super typhoon (STY) outlook for the WNP basin and subregions, including China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Using multivariate Poisson regression and considering up to nine modes of ocean-atmospheric variability and teleconnection patterns that influence WNP TC behaviour, thousands of possible predictor model combinations are compared using an automated variable selection procedure. For each location, skillful TY and STY outlooks are generated up to 6 months before the start of the typhoon season, with rolling monthly updates enabling refinement of predicted TY and STY frequency. This unparalleled lead time allows end-users to make more informed decisions before and during the typhoon season.