Spatio-temporal clustering of successive earthquakes as inferred from analyses of global CMT and NIED F-net catalogs

Abstract

Abstract Investigation of the characteristic behavior of successive earthquakes that closely occur in space and time is important to understand the generation mechanism of earthquakes and useful to assess a triggered earthquake, especially around the area, where a first large earthquake took place. Here, we analyzed the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog from 1976 to 2016 for shallow earthquakes with a moment magnitude, $${M}_{w}$$ M w , of at least 5.5, and the F-net catalog, Japan, for $$4\le {M}_{w}<5.5$$ 4 ≤ M w < 5.5 , to clarify the spatio-temporal characteristics of the successive earthquakes. We first sorted all of the earthquakes in time and removed the aftershocks that occurred in and around the faults of earthquakes with $${M}_{w}$$ M w larger than the target magnitude range we investigated. Then, we selected source events from the beginning and searched for earthquakes that occurred within a horizontal distance (D) and a lapsed time ( $${T}_{a}$$ T a ) from the source event to group them in clusters. Then, the source event was selected from the catalog in order, and the same procedure was repeated. We counted the number of clusters, each of which consisted of successive earthquakes, for different D and $${T}_{a}.$$ T a . To examine whether successive earthquakes were explained by random occurrences, we compared the results with simulations in which earthquakes occurred randomly in time but at the same locations matching the centroids in the real data. The comparison showed that the number of clusters for the simulation rapidly increased with D and merged with that for real data at a short distance, which is defined here as the triggering distance. We find that triggering distance is proportional to about 1/5 to 1/4 of the seismic moment $${(M}_{0})$$ ( M 0 ) of the source event, and exponentially decreases with increasing $${T}_{a}$$ T a . Relating the derived empirical scaling relations between $${M}_{0}$$ M 0 and triggering distance from the equations in the ETAS model, we show that the observed exponents of 1/5 to 1/4 were well predicted from the estimated ETAS parameters in various regions around the world. These consistencies first show that successive occurrence of earthquakes is well explained by the ETAS model. Graphical abstract

Keywords

• Spatio-temporal clustering
• Successive earthquake occurrence
• Triggering distance
• Coulomb stress change
• ETAS model
• Tectonic setting