Conceptual sizing of next supersonic passenger aircraft from regression of the limited existing designs

Abstract

Despite previous versions, there are no current supersonic passenger transport aircraft. Much aircraft research is focused on hypersonic flight and the new technologies therein and is therefore unlikely to add to commercial versions anytime soon. This study re-examines conceptual sizing of a supersonic transport aircraft based on extant supersonic designs in order to ignite research into whether a commercially-viable design might exist. Key metrics are developed using distances between likely airport network nodes, an assumed number of passengers, and a reduction in transport time to one-third of current journeys. The study uses multiple response regression of known designs to develop key performance formulae, which are then optimized to set performance values so as to estimate an initial aircraft size, including an expected value analysis to guide the next conceptual design iteration. Twenty years ago a NASA Langley Research optimization system was used to examine non-linear regression of supersonic aircraft designs and to optimize such a design around similar performance criteria. In contrast, this work is the first supersonic transport aircraft sizing to use commercially-available Excel add-on software and standard design-for-sixsigma analysis techniques; notably for the sensitivity analyses to guide the next design iteration.