Sun, Wind and Waves: EV Fossil Fuel Use and Emissions on an Isolated, Oil-Dependent Hawaiian Island

Abstract

Electric power grids in remote communities around the world tend to be highly oil-dependent, unlike large, interconnected grids. Consequently, self-contained power grids such as the Hawaiian Islands’ have become testbeds for aggressive renewable energy integration (PV, wind, and ocean energy) and transportation electrification. However, there remains a lack of critical analysis for remote communities to determine the benefits of transitioning from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to plug-in electric vehicles (EVs). This case study examines the impacts of this transition to EVs and renewable power generation on fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions on the oil-dependent Island of Oahu, Hawaii. Average passenger EVs were found to consume seven times less fossil fuel (the equivalent of 66 gallons of gasoline (GGe), than their gasoline-powered counterparts (455 gallons) in 2020. Average EVs also cut emissions in half, (2 MTCO2 versus 4 MTCO2). Several renewable power and EV transition scenarios were modeled to assess impacts out to 2050. Fossil fuel use and emissions plummet with more clean power and increasing EV numbers. By 2045, in the most ambitious scenario, all gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles (passenger and freight) will consume a total of 8.8 billion GGe, and EVs 0.090 billion GGe (1%). ICE CO2 emissions will total 80 MMT, and EVs 4.4 MMT (5.5%). By 2050, the anticipated transition to electric passenger and freight vehicles combined with renewable power will lead to 99% less fossil fuel consumed, and 93% less CO2 emitted.

Keywords

• electrification of transportation
• renewable energy
• electric vehicle transition
• CO₂ emissions