Reduced precipitation can induce ecosystem regime shifts in lakes by increasing internal nutrient recycling

Abstract

Abstract Eutrophication is a main threat to continental aquatic ecosystems. Prevention and amelioration actions have been taken under the assumption of a stable climate, which needs reconsideration. Here, we show that reduced precipitation can bring a lake ecosystem to a more productive regime even with a decline in nutrient external load. By analyzing time series of several decades in the largest lake of the Iberian Peninsula, we found autocorrelated changes in the variance of state variables (i.e., chlorophyll and oxygen) indicative of a transient situation towards a new ecosystem regime. Indeed, exceptional planktonic diatom blooms have occurred during the last few years, and the sediment record shows a shift in phytoplankton composition and an increase in nutrient retention. Reduced precipitation almost doubled the water residence time in the lake, enhancing the relevance of internal processes. This study demonstrates that ecological quality targets for aquatic ecosystems must be tailored to the changing climatic conditions for appropriate stewardship.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Ecosystem regime shift
• Conditional heteroscedasticity
• Precipitation decline
• Global warming
• Nutrient retention