Spatio-temporal analysis of drought variability in central Ethiopia

Abstract

Drought is a major problem in Ethiopia and particularly affects the agricultural and water sectors. This paper aims to assess the spatial and temporal drought variability of central Ethiopia. For this purpose, archival rainfall data recorded from 1989 to 2017 and the Gurage zone topographic maps were used. The five stations’ Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were combined with the geographical information system (GIS) to analyze the spatial distribution of drought events. The results show that a total number of 41 drought events were recorded in the region. The number of drought events reaches its maximum value in the year 1992, whereas Bui and Koshe contain the most frequent drought events. The spatial analysis of droughts verifies that most of the frequent and extreme events are recorded in the eastern part of the region. The lowland part of Gurage zone is very prone to drought. The grounded spatio-temporal drought risk events analysis has shown a possible threat to the water and rain-fed farming that has a cascading effect on the livelihoods of farmers. Moreover, the drought condition of the region is unpredictable and recurrent. This study recommends further study containing remaining statistical drought indices such as reconnaissance drought and streamflow drought index. HIGHLIGHTS Some parts of the zone were found to be very sensitive and vulnerable to drought events.; Drought conditions in the area were found to be unpredictable and recurrent.; Areas vulnerable to drought were identified, which helps to point out adaptation options and spot early warning signs, establishing a climate research center and refugee camp.; The level of drought risk in the area was identified against the global risk measurement scale.;

Keywords

• drought
• gis
• spatial
• spi
• temporal
• variability