Risk Evolution Analysis of Seafarers’ Unsafe Acts in Maritime Accidents Based on Directed Weighted CN

Abstract

Seafarers’ unsafe acts as the direct causes of maritime accidents are considered to be the result of the interaction between complex and dynamic influencing factors. Identifying the risk evolution characteristics and paths of seafarers’ unsafe acts has always been a challenge in maritime safety management. For this purpose, the present study introduces association rule technique into complex network to develop a directed weighted interaction network of seafarers’ unsafe acts and their influencing factors. Through global network topology analysis and local network community detection, the risk evolution characteristics of seafarers’ unsafe acts in maritime accidents are analyzed from a multidimensional perspective. The results indicate that the developed network has small-world characteristics, and the top 10 critical nodes all belong to seafarers’ unsafe acts, of which failure to make proper sound and light signals achieves the highest PageRank value. Results from this study would help maritime stakeholders to understand the evolution mechanism of seafarers’ unsafe acts and develop safety management strategies for interrupting the risk propagation of seafarers’ unsafe acts.

Keywords

• risk evolution
• unsafe acts
• maritime accidents
• complex network
• association rule