Consolidação fiscal nos Estados brasileiros: uma análise de duração

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze theduration of fiscal consolidation of Brazilianstates in the period 1986-2001. For thispropose, we applied the duration modelsmethodology. We sought to establish the maincharacteristics that explain the probability that astate would remain in fiscal balance, once it hasachieved that position. The non-parametricresults suggest that the probability that fiscalconsolidation will be maintained fallsdramatically after the first year and even moreafter the second year. Parametric analysis showsthat there is a core of relevant variables, such asthe Number of Failures, the PersonnelCosts/Net Current Revenue ratio, the dummyvariable for the years before the BrazilianConstitution of 1988, the dummy variable forthe years after the refinance law 9496/97 andthe polarization in the preferences of the partiesthat compose the Legislative Assembly.

Keywords

• fiscal consolidation
• duration analysis.