The impact of meteorological parameters on the scrub typhus incidence in Baoshan City, western Yunnan, China

Abstract

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BackgroundScrub typhus has become widespread across various regions in China in recent decades, causing a considerable burden on residents. While meteorological variables significantly impact the spread of scrub typhus, there is insufficient quantitative evidence illustrating this association in known high-endemic areas.MethodsA distributed lag non-linear model was applied to explore the relationship between meteorological parameters and scrub typhus incidence from 2010 to 2019 in Baoshan City, western Yunnan Province, China.ResultsHigh monthly mean (20°C) and maximum (30°C) temperatures were associated with a peak risk of scrub typhus in the current month. Higher minimum temperatures and higher relative humidity were followed by increasing cumulative risks over the ensuing 3 months. Higher precipitation was followed by increasing cumulative risk over the ensuing 2-month period, peaking at around 30 cm.ConclusionThe non-linear lag associations between meteorological parameters and scrub typhus incidence suggest that higher monthly minimum temperature and relative humidity could be associated with an increased risk of scrub typhus in the subsequent several months, while warm temperature is more likely to impact the occurrence of scrub typhus in the current month.

Keywords

• distributed lag non-linear model
• meteorological parameters
• scrub typhus incidence
• high-known endemic areas
• lag pattern