ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF THE EFFECT OF ALTERNATIVE ENGINE TECHNOLOGIES AND POLICY MEASURES ON THE AIR QUALITY IN ST. PETERSBURG IN 2010–2030

Abstract

Problems related to the quality of life in big cities are increasingly relevant, especially with regard to environmental issues. Motor transport is responsible for pollutant emissions and noise that decisively affect life in modern cities. In this context, evaluating, monitoring and forecasting urban environmental quality in short-term and long-term perspective has become an important issue for decision making and planning of sustainable cities. Computational model COPERT was applied in the study to obtain long-term projections of road transport-related emission rates for pollutants and greenhouse gases. Three scenarios for St. Petersburg considering the population size, vehicle fleet structure, travel behavior, and fuel consumption are developed. It is shown that the greatest effect in emission reduction can be achieved through modernization of the vehicle fleet. Additional environmental protection measures such as an increase in the share of alternative fuels and promotion of public transportation are expected to result in an additional decline of pollutants and GHG emissions by 7–20% and 5–7%, respectively, in comparison with the Basic Scenario.

Keywords

• Road transport
• sustainable development
• air pollution
• short-term and long-term forecasting